Demonetization:4.

17 JULY 2023

10.0 Now let us apply PICKSS logic for any event to happen and for the success of any event.

PICKSS says that an event can happen only when ‘what,’ ‘where’, ‘who’ dimensions coincide with ‘when’ dimension.

10.1: What only was done?

10.1.1: Demonetization of only 500 and 1000 Rs notes. Why these only? A lot of homework should have gone to decide this, to discover these were the notes that were used to inflict damage through the counterfeit currency and in spreading terrorism.

10.2: Where only it was done?

10.2.1: Covering the whole country excepting very few critical areas like hospitals etc.where the old currency was accepted. Why? To minimize disruption to the public.

10.3: Who only did it?

10.3.1: The Modi government. Why: Because the Govt. was visionary and knew exactly what it was doing and why. You need a leader who instinctively knows the people of the Nation, has guts and is clear about his intention which is ‘my role demands me to give + to the people and the nation in the long term, though it may give some pain in the short term.’

10.4: When only was this done:

10.4.1: Timing 1: Sudden and at one stroke. Why? Else the whole exercise would have become futile rendering it ineffective if people had time to hide counterfeit currency elsewhere or Pak would have had time to print the new counterfeit currency, thus sabotaging key objectives of demonetization.

10.4.2: Timing 2: This was done after several steps had been taken BEFORE, with correct priorities assigned for each step, to ensure its success:

A law was passed in 2015 for disclosure of foreign black money.

Agreements with many countries, including the U.S., have been made to add provisions for sharing banking information.

A strict law has come into force from August 2016 to curb benami transactions, or the purchase of property and deals using fictitious names — a way of deploying black money earned through corruption.

A scheme was introduced for declaring black money after paying a stiff penalty.

And above all, was the Prime Minister’s Jan Dhan Yojana, which aimed at financial inclusion for the whole country. Launched in August 2014, it has managed to add 250 million bank accounts through November 2016.

11.0: Another expert opined:

11.1: “In sum, while demonetization imposed short-term costs, there have been important benefits via the increase in direct tax collections as a proportion of GDP, and the sharp, persistent rise in digital payments. As these represent long-term benefits from greater formalization, they will continue to accrue in a globalized economy that is undergoing a digitally-enabled Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

11.2: This has been proved to be true.

Now let us check with our Right or Wrong table: The indices within brackets indicate the expert opinions and those without brackets indicate actual results. The indices represent the paragraph numbers in the above write-up to which you can refer.

From the very few indices without brackets in the minus column, the conclusions under 11.2 are right.

From the number of indices with brackets under minus it is also clear that a significant number of expert opinions went wrong.